Property prices in some places have been rocketing and Sydney gets a lot of the media attention. People have ignored the fact that the Byron Bay median price has often outstripped Sydney and maintained itself for longer. In this blog, I have drilled down into the median price fluctuations of some of the micro regions in our area.
Byron Bay 2481
As I have been saying for a while, property prices in Byron CBD 2481 have been on a rocket into orbit. Have to look at the attached graph above and you can see it. The median price at the end of 2013 was $650,000 and now sits at $1M after hitting a peak of $1,087,500 earlier in the year. That is a capital gain of 67% from the bottom to the top of the market in just over two years.
Some people would be predicting (some hoping) that Byron will have to come off these highs and is in for a correction. Maybe, but my opinion is that Byron Bay has joined the ranks of blue chip locations like Bondi Beach and other Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, Palm Beach, South Yarra, St Kilda in Melbourne, etc. Yes, prices will always fluctuate but these iconic locations are generally protected from major downturns and tend to hold value well.
If you have a look at the graph again, see how Byron’s median was trading within the $600-800,000 range for most of this ten-year period. I believe it will now trade between the $1-1.2M range for another period of time.
Mullumbimby recently surpassed its highs of 2010 ($530,000) and is now in new territory. It is currently at a median price of $572,500 and I think still has some wind behind it. I still see some growth in Mullum as it is getting more popular and buyers priced out of Byron will look to Mullum, Bangalow and Brunswick Heads. Anyone planning on selling in Mullum would do well to look at later this year and may pick the top.
Bangalow 2479 and Brunswick Heads 2483
Bangalow and Brunswick Heads have very similar charts so have combined them together (using Bangalow here). Both are in new highs after the median of $650,000 in 2010 for Bangalow and $720,000 for Brunswick. Bangalow now sits at $685,000 and Brunswick Heads at $788,500. I see no reason why Brunswick Heads would not be the next town to breach the $1M median in this area within a few years. Also of interest is the more extreme downturn Banglalow had from 2011 to 13 due to its strong growth in the preceding years.
Lismore’s high point came at the beginning of 2011 with $305,000. It is still a long way from reclaiming that territory at $282,000. Lismore is in line for a major new area for subdivision on the North Lismore plateau. It has the potential to hold up to 1550 new dwellings. This could keep house prices flat for a while in the existing town. But into the future, the expanded growth could make this regional town busier and more productive.
Murwillumbah 2484 and Tweed Heads
M’bah had a good run in 06/07 but has been stumbling since then. It now sits at $375,000, which is only slightly above what it attained in 2010. Murwillumbah is badly in need of a new industry and more economic drivers. Tweed Heads has had good growth and demand of late but is in danger of becoming a dormitory town for the Gold Coast and a retirment village. It has had steady growth for some time and this should continue but needs to be careful of their rising stats with domestic violence and homelessness.
Ballina is a coastal town (as well as Ocean Shores) where I still see lots of room for growth. It has a lot of potential in many areas. In the short term, the new housing developments will keep a lid on rental return but there is a lot of room in capital gain with this median price still sitting at an affordable $440,000.
Anyone expecting that we are entering into a downturn and look at this accompanying graph. APM Core Logic recorded a combined city price increase of 1.7%